Kenya riots

I didn't read the news at all while I was in New York for a pre-New Year gathering, and so I missed much of the early-post-election rioting in Kenya. I returned to ask my father what was happening in Pakistan and he mentioned that Kenya seemed to be in a more uncertain state of turmoil (and, for me, feels "closer to home"). I've been trying to do some catching up since being home, and this letter is helpful background for people who find themselves in a similar situation.

(After re-reading the letter, I do feel compelled to comment that the impression I got of Kibaki from Tanzanians wasn't nearly so positive. On the other hand, many of them love Museveni, especially in the northwest along the Ugandan border. Although I think a certain level of corruption is par for the course in a developing country, I also worry about the ideological commitment to democracy of anyone who learned the ropes under Daniel arop Moi, Kenya's former President and a poster child for corruption and consolidation of power. Kibaki seved as Moi's VP from 1978 to 1988 and recently appointed his former boss as a peace envoy to South Sudan.)

I wish I could watch Al Jazeera's coverage at the moment. I can't really grudge the primary coverage at the moment because Iowa and NH both happen in less than a week and I'm terribly excited and all, but what happens to Kenya is really quite important. I think we often think of strategically important nations just in terms of the Middle East, and Kenya may lack the claim to global signifigance of Turkey, Egypt or Iran. However, Kenya has been one of a few lynchpins of stability in a very volatile region. It's just south of-- and shares a border with--Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia. It also borders Uganda, and is close to Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC. I believe that the air campaigns for Operations Restore Hope and Provide Relief were launched from Mombasa, Kenya.

Additionally, Kenya was colonized more "heavily" than the other countries in its "family" (Tanzania and Uganda) and as a result, has a higher percentage of English speakers (differences between the TZ and Kenya education systems has probably exacerbated this) and stronger infrastructure. It has been a regional leader for integration, immediately rolling back its border tariffs while allowing less-developed Tanzania and Uganda a phase-out period. Kenya is perceived as an industrial powerhouse in East Africa and is South Africa's primary competitor for the processed goods market in much of Eastern, Southern, and Central Africa. It's possible that larger scale on-going disruption could seriously harm the supply chain-- and I mean of food, not computer parts-- for much of the region.

At any rate, it looks as though a move away from democracy is a more likely outcome than continued instability, which is also a major setback for the region.

It's Obama's fatherland. I wish he'd stop picking on his allies and use this time in the spotlight to divert some addition to a truly divided country. Or someone else would. Maybe Iowa would welcome the change.

Edit (1/2/08): Here's a post from a former professor that discusses the way "tribalism" is being covered in the US press.